Who is going to win the Quantum Race?
Have you ever heard of the Y2K? It was a widespread rumor about a computer shortcut that was supposed to cause extensive havoc as the year changed from 1999 to 2000. The researchers and computer scientists next predict such a bug as Y2Q, i.e., Year to Quantum. A quantum computing algorithm will cause the next havoc, but the number of years after which it will happen is not known yet. After Google claimed to achieve quantum supremacy, some experts predict it to be as close as 10–20 years.
Why should the countries be prepared for the Y2Q?
The first quantum revolution already happened in the 1920s. This revolution came about as a result of our more profound understanding of the field. This understanding answered a lot of questions like how do the microscopic particles behave, why do the macroscopic particles not behave the same way, what is entanglement, etc.
The second quantum revolution has already begun. With Google announcing quantum supremacy in October 2019 and D-Wave already being able to make the first commercial quantum computer, it’s far from over. The companies are going fanatic about it. Google claimed to solve a problem in merely 200 s that otherwise would have taken the world’s best supercomputer around 10,000 years to resolve. Most of the quantum-mechanical knowledge is being put to solve precision problems. We can also build unhackable communication networks and unbreakable ciphers. Quantum computers may eventually be able to begin to address the currently unsolvable problems. These efforts might go on to improve the fertilizer quality, transmission of electric power, optimization of traffic flow, or analyzing impractically large datasets.
Most of the world is already working on the research. As a result, there are rudimentary quantum-sensors and communication networks already in use. They, however, make very little use of the quantum part in their system. The full potential is still to be explored. According to McKinsey, around 7000 people worldwide were working on quantum-technology research with a combined budget of $1.5 bn. The chart below shows just that.
The countries are also getting interested in this technology. Thus, a lot of such researches is nationally funded. Britain has set aside £270m ($337m), and the European Union has a pan-European program worth €1bn ($1.08bn). The technology also has serious security implications, and thus the defense departments of these countries are also providing funding.
The most notable thing about the whole revolution is that it relates more to engineering now. The search with the startups is already on whether it involves building more robust qubits that can withstand higher temperatures or building better communication networks. Google is already ahead in the quantum-computer technology, and Microsoft has the most strategic plan to provide the software.
Do we have enough programmers to program Quantum Computers?
We all would agree that if there is a quantum computer but no programmers to program one, then the entire effort and years of research would be in vain. Although efforts are being made to build a quantum computer, both industrially and academically, still little has been done to make an easy to understand software needed to run the machines. Even, now when there is a variety of software and SDKs available to run a quantum computer, another challenge is to make novel algorithms that can help break the problems into discrete parts. A lot of companies have released their programming languages.
Although its too early to predict the ultimate winner of this marathon, a lot of nations have already begun their quantum sprint. Some countries like Canada have been investing in making quantum machines for decades now, while others like India has only started to get started.
Countries at the Top of the List
USA: In December of 2018, President Donald Trump passed a bill to earmark around the US $1.2 billion for research involving quantum information sciences over the next decade. The Act, also known as the National Quantum Initiative Act, is a clear indication of the government’s orientation towards observing quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum cryptography progress. The US has already been doing quantum communications experiments, laying a 48-kilometer quantum network between Argonne National Laboratory and the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The Silicon Valley in the US is again the hotspot for the research. With the tech giants such as — IBM, Google, Intel, and Microsoft — all pushing limits every day. The unique feature that differentiates this field is that it is seeing the resurgence of industry-related research with the importance being given to real-life applications.
Quantum computing is already doing the rounds with the rumors of being able to break the current security systems. Investments made in this field at the right time can determine whether the US continues to remain the world leader in technology or undermined by another foreign body.
China: Another player in this race is China, which is already known to develop tech with a devoted workforce. Last January, the world saw China build two hospitals within a week using all the resources the country had. This strongly indicated that the country has enough resources to lead the race which it wants to. Google engineering director Hartmut Neven warned about the country’s ability to devote massive amounts of funds to a single task. One of the prime goals for China is to outperform the US in the quantum race and understands the importance of investing in quantum technology.
The past two years have seen China expedite its research in this field. In 2016, President Xi Jinping had established a strategy in his New Year’s address that would help the country become self-reliant in technology. China’s anxiety about the US doing surveillance within its borders seem to be well in sync with its investment in this field. It has time and again demonstrated to the world its capabilities in this field as well. In August 2016, China launched a quantum satellite to launch a test platform for quantum communication between the Earth and space.
Moreover, China has already demonstrated quantum encryption. It conducted an unhackable intercontinental video call using the same. It has also laid 2000 kilometer optic fiber between Beijing and Shanghai via Jinan for quantum communications experiments. This network is made up of 50 nodes — switchboards connecting senders and receivers. The customers who use this are China Industrial and Commercial Bank, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and the Xinhua news agency. Another feather in its cap happens to be its quantum radar with accuracy detecting objects up to 100 kilometers away. In a nutshell, quantum communications and sensing applications could be well within a few years from now.
China is surging ahead in the quantum satellite technology. The country is working to build a $10 billion national lab in 2020. Also, the tech giant Ali Baba is planning to build a lab of its own.
Europe: As explained above, various countries in the European Union have also been investing heavily in this research. In 2004, Vienna’s City Hall and the Bank of Austria enabled their first quantum-encrypted bank transfer. A quantum-cryptography expert claimed that all the implementation problems would be solved within three years from when the bank transfer was first implemented. It did not happen, though.
The same technology was put to use again in 2007 during the federal elections for Switzerland. The vote tallies were sent from the various polling stations to the Geneva State Government. Experts in the field said that the transmission could not have tampered. It was developed by a company called ID Quantique. It produced a system that used one of the quantum mechanics principles to offer such tamper-proof security.
A lot of companies then conducted field trials. Subsequently, it was proved that the optic fibers that bring the internet to homes and businesses could be used to send light signals for quantum communication. Quantum networks are springing up or expanding at a fast rate. Soon, the quantum signals will be able to reach the space, and quantum communication will be established forever.
The European Commission has already earmarked €1-billion ($1.13 billion) to fund the quantum research.
Singapore: IBM is leading the research, hereafter collaborating with the National University of Singapore for three years in April 2020. The Quantum Engineering Programme(QEP) at NUS is a national initiative that will help convert the research in quantum technology into commercial products. The National Research Foundation Singapore supports QEP.
IBM has also decided to conduct local hackathons to increase the awareness and skills for quantum computing. IBM became the first company in 2016 to have commercial clients via the IBM Q Network. IBM was also the first company to make universal quantum computers accessible via the cloud. Its clients include a community of more than 100 Fortune 500 companies, along with start-ups, government, educational institutions, and research labs.
India: The Indian Government pledged in December 2019 to invest $1.12 billion for quantum computing research over five years. The finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, said that the funding would be done under the National Mission of Quantum Technology and Application Project. Though, the nation has made this commitment a bit late as a lot of countries have already done significant work in this field.
IBM’s CEO, Arvind Krishna, told in an interview last year that none of the Indian Startups are actively working in this field. Thus, it needs to invest in the right kinds of projects to catch up in this race. Moreover, India might also look for partnering with the leading tech giants like Google and IBM, to use their expertise.
What will happen if the countries do not invest in Quantum Computing?
The buzz around Quantum Technology happened in the late 20th century when Peter Shor, was able to show using his quantum algorithm that quantum technology can break the modern-day ciphers. This is a matter of national importance. If a country can implement the quantum-cryptographic solution, then it will not only be able to secure its communication but will also be a risk for other nations.
Again, if a nation can achieve quantum supremacy, then the other countries will have to buy such technology from that one nation. This is inevitable as there will be no way out then except for buying that technology. This, in turn, will cost the other countries billions of dollars. To pay such a cost for quantum autonomy is not more attractive than to already invest in the research and incubation of such technology.
Liked the article? Click that 👏 button for 5 seconds and show your ❤️.
